Ultimatums and De-escalation

The re-forging of the Iron Curtain?

Tensions are brewing along the borders of ex-Soviet States. Putin looks prised to show his hand. The US and NATO’s response is centred on choice; a binary or ‘Ultimatum’ but how does this fit with the West’s ‘de-escalation’ narrative?

This coming Wednesday, representatives from Russia, NATO and the US will meet in Brussels to hold what some have described as ‘crisis talks’. The bulging Russian military presence along the Russia-Ukraine border appears to be the catalyst, although tension between the US, NATO and Russia is anything but new. Talks in Brussels will reportedly be centred on presenting Russia and Putin with a choice; either engage in diplomatic talks to de-escalate the situation or have the wrath of NATO and their shadow puppeteer America unleashed. Does this poking of an already angered Russian bear show a reluctance among Western states to avoid a repeat of their inaction during 2014’s Crimea invasion? Or is this a sign of intent from the West that they are ready to force Putin to play his hand? And what do Russia get out of this exchange?

The Russian people are stereotypically known for their ability to endure hardship. From the tyranny of the Tsar to the massacre in disguise of the communist revolution, ordinary Russians have had to put up with a lot over the last century. Putin was brought into steady the ship, a job which he was doing rather well at first. Starvation was on the decline, peasant farmers could aspire to own their own homes without fearing being branded as bourgeoise scum and a vision of a modern Russia built outside of the mould of previous horrors was starting to work its way into peoples imaginations. The rebuilding of Russia’s economy was not voluntary work for Putin however and the ordinary people largely understood that the price for economic recovery and a rising standard of living was that they keep their darn curious noses out of the political dealings of the state. Putin’s problem as of late is that the economic recovery has slowed and the patriotism, although still strong compared to the increasingly self-hating Americans, is waning. As someone likely once said somewhere, there is nothing better to stir up patriotism with than a good old war. A war that could be a quick fix for Putin’s relationship with the Russian people.

The US on the other hand have had their fill of wars in recent history. Their president, Joe Biden, knows that public sentiment is against new overseas military campaigns and he and his party are desperate to maintain stability in the wake of the Orange Buffoon’s four-year long tempter tantrum. Set amongst this backdrop, it seems unlikely that the US’s main goal here is to escalate towards a war. So what then?

Somewhat apprehensively, light could be shed on the US’s motives here by taking a few steps towards the all so controversial border between news and conspiracy theory.

The longstanding ‘Eurozone Debt Crisis’ has plagued the EU’s single currency project for over 10 years now. Germany’s unwavering economic strength pulls the value of the Euro up, whilst the struggling Greek, Italian and Spanish economies suffer from an artificially inflated currency preventing their governments from hitting the reset button; a kind of continent wide embodiment of an arsonist holding the fire alarm cover shut whilst they dance away.

This is where the conspiracy theories come in (and the metaphors leave, hopefully for good). See there does exist a narrative that ties together some reportedly peculiar going-ons in the financial markets around prominent Eurozone Debt Crisis events with long-term US interests. That narrative is, in short, that the US Dollar’s place as the world’s reserve currency would be much stronger should the Euro project fail. What better way to further induce damage the Euro and the EU project as a whole but to spark military conflict between the West and East of the continent? Throw further doubt against the EU whilst also tying arguably China’s biggest ally up in conflict with a strong NATO backed coalition. This could be a major coup for the US’s ongoing defence of their world number #1 spot if they can get things right.

For the sake of world peace and least not UK household gas prices, we all hope that tensions die down and that whatever ultimatum is given in Brussels is acceptable to all sides however, I can’t help but think that whatever black op, intelligence led geo-political games are being played here won’t conclude anytime soon.